NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Sunday 12 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-12

Market Snapshot

South Australia records negative daily average price amid high renewable penetration

Regional price averages varied widely, ranging from -$6.30/MWh in South Australia to $43.10/MWh in New South Wales. South Australia saw the lowest minimum price of -$100.10/MWh, while New South Wales recorded the highest daily peak of $90.50/MWh. Negative pricing was prevalent across the southern regions, with Victoria and Tasmania each seeing over 320 negative intervals.

System demand peaked in the early evening, led by New South Wales at 10,672 MW and Victoria at 7,841 MW. Total energy consumption for the day reached 1,084.3 GWh across the five regions. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Victoria to New South Wales, totalling 41,737 MWh for the period.

Coal remained the primary generation source at 47.7%, but wind contributed a substantial 30.2% to the total fuel mix. Solar sources provided a combined 14.7% of energy, while gas and hydro generation remained low at 1.3% and 4.5% respectively. Batteries discharged 11,521 MWh but remained net consumers of energy with a net balance of -5,875 MWh.

FCAS costs were modest, with the highest single service cost being $28,381 for Raise Regulation in Tasmania. Total emissions for the day were 304,868 tonnes of CO2. This represents a significant decrease compared to the same day in the previous week.

Today · Forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with other regional peaks ranging from $61.84/MWh to $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average price of $18.70/MWh sits 82.3% below the 7-day average, extending a sharp downward trend from a weekly high of $243.40/MWh. This collapse in pricing coincides with a near-majority renewable share and negative average prices in South Australia, despite batteries remaining net consumers.

NSW $43VIC $7QLD $41SA $-6TAS $8
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
-$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$20 $10 $40 $70 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$60 -$20 $20 $60 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $43 $47 -$9 $90 112 0
QLD $41 $46 -$8 $81 124 0
SA -$6 -$6 -$100 $22 532 0
VIC $7 $8 -$64 $87 352 0
TAS $8 $9 -$15 $88 326 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,672MW
18:00
Trough
6,103MW
13:30
Energy
386.5GWh
QLD
Peak
7,503MW
18:20
Trough
3,998MW
11:50
Energy
275.8GWh
SA
Peak
2,087MW
18:30
Trough
1,261MW
12:45
Energy
75.5GWh
VIC
Peak
7,841MW
18:05
Trough
4,680MW
03:40
Energy
294.2GWh
TAS
Peak
1,310MW
17:05
Trough
952MW
11:50
Energy
52.3GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,7000$912 July, 09:45
LOWERREG$5310$412 July, 16:10
LOWER60SEC$1390$012 July, 13:35
RAISE6SEC$1280$012 July, 22:30
RAISE60SEC$1120$012 July, 09:15
LOWER5MIN$630$012 July, 15:05
RAISE5MIN$420$012 July, 18:40
LOWER6SEC$380$012 July, 13:35
Total$6,753

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,9560$912 July, 09:45
LOWERREG$1,5750$412 July, 16:10
LOWER60SEC$3490$012 July, 13:35
RAISE6SEC$1620$012 July, 22:30
RAISE60SEC$1300$012 July, 09:15
LOWER5MIN$730$012 July, 15:05
LOWER6SEC$570$012 July, 13:35
RAISE5MIN$220$012 July, 18:40
Total$8,325

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,0550$912 July, 09:45
LOWERREG$1,2350$412 July, 16:10
LOWER60SEC$3820$012 July, 13:35
RAISE60SEC$1660$012 July, 09:15
RAISE6SEC$1560$012 July, 22:30
LOWER5MIN$1370$012 July, 15:05
RAISE5MIN$610$012 July, 18:40
LOWER6SEC$400$012 July, 13:35
Total$8,232

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$3,2870$412 July, 16:10
RAISEREG$2,1260$912 July, 09:45
LOWER60SEC$3420$012 July, 13:35
RAISE6SEC$1910$012 July, 22:30
RAISE60SEC$1640$012 July, 09:15
LOWER5MIN$1190$012 July, 15:05
LOWER6SEC$850$012 July, 13:35
RAISE5MIN$550$012 July, 18:40
Total$6,370

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,5440$1312 July, 18:35
LOWERREG$7,2340$7512 July, 07:35
RAISE6SEC$1,1020$312 July, 21:35
RAISE60SEC$7050$012 July, 04:05
LOWER60SEC$1060$312 July, 23:10
LOWER6SEC$460$012 July, 16:15
RAISE5MIN$170$012 July, 23:20
LOWER5MIN$20$012 July, 13:35
Total$17,757

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 989 MW at 19:30 as NSW spot hit $70/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 864 MW at 20:30 as QLD spot hit $66/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 568 MW at 18:30 as VIC spot hit $40/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 132 MW at 18:30 as SA spot hit $1/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,410 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $49/MWh.

Discharged
5,278MWh
peak 989 MW · 19:30
Charged
6,713MWh
peak 1,626 MW
Net
-1,435MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
79%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,099MWh
peak 864 MW · 20:30
Charged
5,905MWh
peak 1,466 MW
Net
-1,807MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
69%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,742MWh
peak 568 MW · 18:30
Charged
3,065MWh
peak 494 MW
Net
-1,323MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
57%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
402MWh
peak 132 MW · 18:30
Charged
1,712MWh
peak 231 MW
Net
-1,310MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
23%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
11,521MWh
peak 2,410 MW · 18:30
Charged
17,395MWh
peak 3,381 MW
Net
-5,875MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
66%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$100-$50$0$50$10023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
5,278MWh
-1,435
#2QLD
4,099MWh
-1,807
#3VIC
1,742MWh
-1,323
#4SA
402MWh
-1,310

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 50.1%
  • Coal50.1% · 106.7 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.0 GWh
  • Hydro4.6% · 9.8 GWh
  • Wind23.3% · 49.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.6% · 18.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.4% · 22.2 GWh
  • Battery2.5% · 5.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 63.5%
  • Coal63.5% · 116.3 GWh
  • Gas2.6% · 4.8 GWh
  • Hydro3.1% · 5.6 GWh
  • Wind6.6% · 12.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)9.5% · 17.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.4% · 22.8 GWh
  • Battery2.2% · 4.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 47.7%
  • Coal47.7% · 90.0 GWh
  • Hydro0.2% · 0.4 GWh
  • Wind45.9% · 86.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.8% · 3.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)3.5% · 6.6 GWh
  • Battery0.9% · 1.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 86.2%
  • Gas2.3% · 1.0 GWh
  • Wind86.2% · 38.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.6% · 0.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)9.0% · 4.0 GWh
  • Battery0.9% · 0.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 49.5%
  • Gas5.8% · 1.6 GWh
  • Hydro49.5% · 13.4 GWh
  • Wind42.2% · 11.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)2.6% · 0.7 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.8 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.2 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.3 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.2 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.8 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
43.7%
VIC · Daily renewable share
58.5%
QLD · Daily renewable share
36.7%
SA · Daily renewable share
97.2%
TAS · Daily renewable share
81.5%
Peak instantaneous
70.9%
at 10:50
Daily NEM-wide share
49.8%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    43.7%
  • VIC
    58.5%
  • QLD
    36.7%
  • SA
    97.2%
  • TAS
    81.5%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +18.1 GWh 12
NSW1-QLD1 −47.3 GWh 2
VIC1-NSW1 +41.7 GWh 4
V-SA +289 MWh 18
T-V-MNSP1 −7.4 GWh 0

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
304.9k tCO₂
▼ 14.2% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 93.1k tCO₂ 0.433 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 102.8k tCO₂ 0.555 tCO₂/MWh
SA 415 tCO₂ 0.009 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 107.6k tCO₂ 0.576 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 951 tCO₂ 0.036 tCO₂/MWh