NEM Daily analysis

Saturday 11 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-11

Market Snapshot

Significant price divergence as southern regions experience frequent negative intervals

Regional price outcomes varied significantly across the mainland, with New South Wales and Queensland maintaining positive averages while South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania saw frequent negative pricing. South Australia and Victoria recorded 338 and 306 negative intervals respectively, leading to daily averages of $5.00/MWh and $6.60/MWh. In contrast, New South Wales reached a maximum price of $101.10/MWh.

Demand peaked across all regions between 18:00 and 18:30, with New South Wales reaching a maximum load of 10,233 MW. The total energy requirement for the day was highest in New South Wales at 396 GWh, followed by Victoria at 291.4 GWh. Queensland demand peaked at 7,428 MW shortly after 18:00.

Coal remained the primary generation source at 52.8%, while wind contributed a substantial 24.5% to the total fuel mix. Solar utility and rooftop solar combined for 14.3% of generation, peaking at 12:45. Batteries provided 14,290 MWh of discharge energy, representing 2.2% of the total generation mix for the day.

FCAS costs were relatively subdued with no price spikes recorded across any service. The highest total cost was seen in the Raise Regulation service at $26,167, with New South Wales recording the peak price of $9.00/MWh. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Victoria into New South Wales and South Australia.

Today · Forward projections indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, while other regions expect peaks between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average price of $31.50/MWh sits 71.8% below the weekly average, breaking a volatile seven-day trend of much higher prices. This collapse in pricing coincided with a 44.8% renewable share and over 300 negative intervals in southern regions, despite coal still providing over half of the total generation mix.

NSW $64VIC $7QLD $58SA $5TAS $10

Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS

Region	Avg	VWAP	Min	Max	Neg
NSW	$64	$66	$20	$101	0
QLD	$58	$62	$3	$99	0
SA	$5	$6	-$28	$48	338
VIC	$7	$7	-$21	$99	306
TAS	$10	$11	-$6	$87	184

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW

Peak

10,233MW

18:00

Trough

6,290MW

13:25

Energy

396.0GWh

QLD

Peak

7,428MW

18:05

Trough

4,097MW

11:20

Energy

279.1GWh

Peak

2,197MW

18:25

Trough

1,386MW

06:45

Energy

82.6GWh

VIC

Peak

7,541MW

18:05

Trough

4,808MW

03:55

Energy

291.4GWh

TAS

Peak

1,365MW

18:30

Trough

955MW

03:10

Energy

55.3GWh

FCAS

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
RAISEREG	$4,959	0	$9	11 July, 07:10
LOWERREG	$632	0	$4	11 July, 16:00
LOWER60SEC	$184	0	$0	11 July, 15:50
RAISE6SEC	$136	0	$0	11 July, 18:25
RAISE60SEC	$100	0	$0	11 July, 17:55
LOWER5MIN	$79	0	$0	11 July, 15:50
LOWER6SEC	$57	0	$0	11 July, 16:00
RAISE5MIN	$47	0	$0	11 July, 04:40
Total	$6,192

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
RAISEREG	$4,211	0	$9	11 July, 07:10
LOWERREG	$1,840	0	$4	11 July, 16:00
LOWER60SEC	$425	0	$0	11 July, 15:50
RAISE6SEC	$228	0	$0	11 July, 18:25
RAISE60SEC	$130	0	$0	11 July, 17:55
LOWER6SEC	$98	0	$0	11 July, 16:00
LOWER5MIN	$88	0	$0	11 July, 15:50
RAISE5MIN	$36	0	$0	11 July, 04:40
Total	$7,057

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
RAISEREG	$6,501	0	$9	11 July, 07:10
LOWERREG	$1,322	0	$4	11 July, 16:00
RAISE60SEC	$230	0	$0	11 July, 17:55
RAISE6SEC	$227	0	$0	11 July, 18:25
LOWER60SEC	$192	0	$0	11 July, 15:50
RAISE5MIN	$86	0	$0	11 July, 04:40
LOWER5MIN	$58	0	$0	11 July, 15:50
LOWER6SEC	$40	0	$0	11 July, 16:00
Total	$8,657

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
LOWERREG	$3,170	0	$4	11 July, 16:00
RAISEREG	$2,376	0	$9	11 July, 07:10
LOWER60SEC	$252	0	$0	11 July, 15:50
RAISE6SEC	$239	0	$0	11 July, 18:25
RAISE60SEC	$169	0	$0	11 July, 17:55
LOWER6SEC	$98	0	$0	11 July, 16:00
LOWER5MIN	$75	0	$0	11 July, 15:50
RAISE5MIN	$72	0	$0	11 July, 04:40
Total	$6,451

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
RAISEREG	$8,121	0	$5	11 July, 05:40
LOWERREG	$3,535	0	$3	11 July, 09:40
LOWER6SEC	$1,235	0	$6	11 July, 17:40
RAISE60SEC	$1,126	0	$3	11 July, 16:35
RAISE6SEC	$986	0	$3	11 July, 19:10
LOWER60SEC	$307	0	$1	11 July, 23:00
RAISE5MIN	$38	0	$0	11 July, 16:35
LOWER5MIN	$31	0	$0	11 July, 16:00
Total	$15,380

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,311 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $85/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,107 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $81/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 597 MW at 18:30 as VIC spot hit $11/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 372 MW at 19:00 as SA spot hit $45/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,145 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $39/MWh.

Discharged

5,747MWh

peak 1,311 MW · 18:00

Charged

7,041MWh

peak 1,474 MW

Net

-1,295MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

82%

discharge / charge ratio

Discharged

4,741MWh

peak 1,107 MW · 18:30

Charged

5,495MWh

peak 1,205 MW

Net

-753MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

86%

discharge / charge ratio

Discharged

2,508MWh

peak 597 MW · 18:30

Charged

4,007MWh

peak 547 MW

Net

-1,499MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

63%

discharge / charge ratio

Discharged

1,294MWh

peak 372 MW · 19:00

Charged

1,785MWh

peak 331 MW

Net

-491MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

73%

discharge / charge ratio

NEM-wide

Discharged

14,290MWh

peak 3,145 MW · 18:30

Charged

18,328MWh

peak 2,825 MW

Net

-4,038MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

78%

discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh

Regional dispatch ranking

Region	Discharged	Peak MW	Peak time	Net
#1NSW	5,747MWh	1,311	18:00	-1,295
#2QLD	4,741MWh	1,107	18:30	-753
#3VIC	2,508MWh	597	18:30	-1,499
#4SA	1,294MWh	372	19:00	-491

Generation Mix

Coal65.7% · 133.5 GWh
Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
Hydro5.0% · 10.2 GWh
Wind7.2% · 14.7 GWh
Solar (utility)8.5% · 17.4 GWh
Solar (rooftop)10.2% · 20.7 GWh
Battery2.8% · 5.7 GWh

Coal65.8% · 124.9 GWh
Gas2.7% · 5.2 GWh
Hydro2.7% · 5.1 GWh
Wind3.9% · 7.4 GWh
Solar (utility)9.4% · 17.9 GWh
Solar (rooftop)12.7% · 24.1 GWh
Battery2.5% · 4.7 GWh
Other0.2% · 0.3 GWh

Coal47.2% · 90.7 GWh
Hydro0.4% · 0.9 GWh
Wind45.7% · 87.8 GWh
Solar (utility)1.5% · 2.9 GWh
Solar (rooftop)3.9% · 7.5 GWh
Battery1.3% · 2.5 GWh

Gas2.4% · 1.2 GWh
Wind88.9% · 45.2 GWh
Solar (utility)1.3% · 0.6 GWh
Solar (rooftop)4.9% · 2.5 GWh
Battery2.5% · 1.3 GWh

Hydro70.1% · 18.0 GWh
Wind27.5% · 7.0 GWh
Solar (rooftop)2.3% · 0.6 GWh

coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)

coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)

coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)

gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)

hydrowindsolar rooftop

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share

28.6%

VIC · Daily renewable share

59.9%

QLD · Daily renewable share

34.1%

SA · Daily renewable share

107.5%

TAS · Daily renewable share

80.1%

Peak instantaneous

68.4%

at 12:45

Daily NEM-wide share

44.8%

By region (daily share)

NSW

28.6%
VIC

59.9%
QLD

34.1%
SA

107.5%
TAS

80.1%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy)	Net flow	Direction changes	Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1	+18.6 GWh	14	—
NSW1-QLD1	−58.5 GWh	0	—
VIC1-NSW1	+45.3 GWh	0	—
V-SA	+13.3 GWh	16	—
T-V-MNSP1	−13.1 GWh	1	—

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions

335.5k tCO₂

▼ 6.2% vs same day last week

Intensity by region

NSW	116.5k tCO₂	0.565 tCO₂/MWh
QLD	110.3k tCO₂	0.575 tCO₂/MWh
SA	475 tCO₂	0.009 tCO₂/MWh
VIC	108.3k tCO₂	0.567 tCO₂/MWh
TAS	0 tCO₂	0.000 tCO₂/MWh