NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Friday 18 September 2026

Trading day 2026-09-18

Market Snapshot

Renewable share peaks at eighty-one per cent amid widespread negative pricing

Average prices across the NEM showed significant divergence, with Victoria and South Australia recording daily averages of $6.40/MWh and $14.80/MWh respectively. New South Wales saw the highest regional average at $56.70/MWh and a peak price of $189.10/MWh. Negative pricing was prevalent across all regions, occurring in 248 intervals in South Australia and 190 intervals in Queensland.

Renewable generation reached an instantaneous peak of 81.0% at 12:55. Solar sources contributed a combined 30.2% of the total mix, while wind generation provided 18.1%. Coal remained the primary fuel source at 41.9%, whereas gas generation was limited to 1.7% of the total energy supply.

Demand peaked in New South Wales at 8,655 MW during the evening period at 18:35. Batteries contributed 2.9% of total dispatch, discharging 18,822 MWh throughout the day. FCAS costs were highest in the Lower Regulation service, with Tasmania recording a peak price of $110.00/MWh in that category.

Interconnector flows saw 27,940 MWh move from Victoria to New South Wales. Net flows also moved from Tasmania into Victoria and from Victoria into South Australia. Total daily emissions were recorded at 261,652 tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Today · Forward projections indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, while other regions expect peaks between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $37.60/MWh sits well below the seven-day average of $44.59/MWh, breaking a two-day trend of rising prices. This lower price environment coincided with an exceptionally high renewable peak and a significant reduction in emissions intensity compared to the previous week.

NSW $57VIC $6QLD $51SA $15TAS $17
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
-$10 $33 $75 $118 $160 -$40 -$5 $30 $65 $100 -$10 $28 $65 $103 $140 -$70 -$25 $20 $65 $110 -$40 -$5 $30 $65 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $57 $63 -$7 $189 96 0
QLD $51 $58 -$7 $175 190 0
SA $15 $28 -$180 $117 248 0
VIC $6 $9 -$44 $99 242 0
TAS $17 $18 -$36 $105 208 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,655MW
18:35
Trough
4,089MW
12:40
Energy
325.5GWh
QLD
Peak
7,218MW
18:15
Trough
3,617MW
13:00
Energy
265.2GWh
SA
Peak
1,636MW
19:35
Trough
92MW
13:40
Energy
52.4GWh
VIC
Peak
6,530MW
07:00
Trough
3,076MW
13:40
Energy
230.5GWh
TAS
Peak
1,214MW
07:45
Trough
783MW
14:10
Energy
46.9GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$2,7250$1018 Sept, 16:15
LOWERREG$2,4150$1018 Sept, 15:55
LOWER5MIN$6150$818 Sept, 15:55
LOWER60SEC$1820$318 Sept, 15:10
RAISE6SEC$680$018 Sept, 06:40
RAISE60SEC$630$018 Sept, 07:05
LOWER6SEC$630$118 Sept, 14:15
RAISE5MIN$250$018 Sept, 19:15
Total$6,156

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,3300$1018 Sept, 16:15
LOWERREG$4,5270$1018 Sept, 15:55
LOWER5MIN$5700$818 Sept, 15:55
LOWER60SEC$3670$318 Sept, 15:10
RAISE6SEC$1920$018 Sept, 06:40
RAISE60SEC$1530$018 Sept, 07:05
LOWER6SEC$840$118 Sept, 14:15
RAISE5MIN$390$018 Sept, 19:15
Total$12,262

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,4670$1018 Sept, 16:15
LOWERREG$1,6230$1018 Sept, 15:55
LOWER5MIN$4560$818 Sept, 15:55
LOWER60SEC$3130$318 Sept, 15:10
RAISE60SEC$1490$018 Sept, 07:05
RAISE6SEC$1450$018 Sept, 06:40
LOWER6SEC$650$118 Sept, 14:15
RAISE5MIN$600$018 Sept, 19:15
Total$11,278

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,2880$1018 Sept, 16:15
LOWERREG$2,1050$1018 Sept, 15:55
LOWER5MIN$9540$818 Sept, 15:55
LOWER60SEC$3510$318 Sept, 15:10
RAISE6SEC$1290$018 Sept, 06:40
LOWER6SEC$1200$118 Sept, 14:15
RAISE60SEC$1130$018 Sept, 07:05
RAISE5MIN$330$018 Sept, 19:15
Total$7,094

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$48,1170$11018 Sept, 16:45
RAISEREG$9,7730$3718 Sept, 06:25
LOWER6SEC$3,2840$7618 Sept, 19:05
RAISE6SEC$1,4380$2518 Sept, 19:05
RAISE60SEC$7710$018 Sept, 06:05
LOWER60SEC$1580$318 Sept, 15:10
RAISE5MIN$120$018 Sept, 07:00
LOWER5MIN$100$818 Sept, 15:55
Total$63,563

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,466 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $84/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,347 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $89/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,128 MW at 19:30 as VIC spot hit $12/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 363 MW at 22:30 as SA spot hit $32/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,941 MW at 19:00 as TAS spot hit $31/MWh.

Discharged
7,454MWh
peak 1,466 MW · 18:30
Charged
8,063MWh
peak 1,753 MW
Net
-609MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
92%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,678MWh
peak 1,347 MW · 18:00
Charged
6,256MWh
peak 1,237 MW
Net
-579MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
91%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,712MWh
peak 1,128 MW · 19:30
Charged
3,937MWh
peak 1,041 MW
Net
-224MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
94%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,978MWh
peak 363 MW · 22:30
Charged
2,111MWh
peak 454 MW
Net
-133MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
94%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
18,822MWh
peak 3,941 MW · 19:00
Charged
20,367MWh
peak 3,909 MW
Net
-1,545MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
92%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$100$0$100$20023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
7,454MWh
-609
#2QLD
5,678MWh
-579
#3VIC
3,712MWh
-224
#4SA
1,978MWh
-133

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 46.2%
  • Coal46.2% · 101.1 GWh
  • Gas0.7% · 1.6 GWh
  • Hydro5.5% · 12.1 GWh
  • Wind9.0% · 19.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)15.9% · 34.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)19.3% · 42.3 GWh
  • Battery3.4% · 7.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 51.8%
  • Coal51.8% · 101.9 GWh
  • Gas1.5% · 3.0 GWh
  • Hydro2.0% · 4.0 GWh
  • Wind8.9% · 17.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)14.2% · 28.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)18.3% · 35.9 GWh
  • Battery2.9% · 5.7 GWh
  • Other0.4% · 0.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 40.6%
  • Coal40.6% · 67.2 GWh
  • Gas0.9% · 1.5 GWh
  • Hydro1.0% · 1.7 GWh
  • Wind32.3% · 53.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)6.9% · 11.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)16.0% · 26.5 GWh
  • Battery2.2% · 3.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 42.6%
  • Gas12.3% · 4.6 GWh
  • Wind42.6% · 15.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.5% · 0.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)37.3% · 13.8 GWh
  • Battery5.3% · 2.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 54.8%
  • Gas0.2% · 0.1 GWh
  • Hydro54.8% · 14.7 GWh
  • Wind39.8% · 10.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)5.2% · 1.4 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.6 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.9 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.3 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.0 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.4 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
48.2%
VIC · Daily renewable share
62.5%
QLD · Daily renewable share
50.9%
SA · Daily renewable share
76.2%
TAS · Daily renewable share
90.9%
Peak instantaneous
81.0%
at 12:55
Daily NEM-wide share
52.9%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    48.2%
  • VIC
    62.5%
  • QLD
    50.9%
  • SA
    76.2%
  • TAS
    90.9%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +18.0 GWh 27 —
NSW1-QLD1 −23.6 GWh 8 —
VIC1-NSW1 +27.9 GWh 14 —
V-SA −9.2 GWh 11 —
T-V-MNSP1 −9.7 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
261.7k tCO₂
▼ 17.3% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 88.7k tCO₂ 0.398 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 90.9k tCO₂ 0.456 tCO₂/MWh
SA 2.1k tCO₂ 0.055 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 79.9k tCO₂ 0.480 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 41 tCO₂ 0.002 tCO₂/MWh