NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Sunday 13 September 2026

Trading day 2026-09-13

Market Snapshot

Renewable share peaks at seventy-seven percent amid widespread negative pricing intervals

Regional average prices ranged from $13.00/MWh in Victoria to $40.10/MWh in New South Wales. South Australia saw the highest frequency of negative intervals at 324, followed by Victoria with 292. Despite these lows, South Australia reached the highest single interval price of $138.00/MWh during the evening peak.

Demand peaked across all regions between 18:35 and 19:10, with New South Wales reaching a maximum of 8,528 MW. Total energy consumption was led by New South Wales at 298.6 GWh and Queensland at 246.2 GWh. The aggregate demand profile coincided with a reduction in solar contributions after the 11:30 renewable peak.

The generation mix was led by coal at 43.7%, while wind and combined solar provided 23.0% and 25.2% respectively. Hydro contributed a modest 4.1% to the total energy mix. Batteries discharged 13,174 MWh to the grid but remained net consumers with a total net load of -7,146 MWh.

FCAS costs were highest in the regulation services, with Raise Regulation in New South Wales totaling $33,239. Lower Regulation in Tasmania saw the highest peak service price of $75.00/MWh. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Victoria into New South Wales and from Queensland into New South Wales.

Today · Predispatch forecasts indicate a price peak of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30 and $145.00/MWh in South Australia at 18:30.

Why it matters · The daily average price of $20.60/MWh sits 61.2% below the 7-day average, marking a sharp departure from the week's established $41-$71 range. This price collapse occurred as the renewable share exceeded 50% alongside a 12% drop in emissions, despite coal maintaining a 43.7% share.

NSW $40VIC $13QLD $36SA $23TAS $17
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
-$20 $10 $40 $70 $100 -$20 $10 $40 $70 $100 -$20 $10 $40 $70 $100 -$20 $10 $40 $70 $100 -$20 $10 $40 $70 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $40 $47 -$11 $89 168 0
QLD $36 $43 -$13 $80 220 0
SA $23 $27 -$19 $138 324 0
VIC $13 $16 -$17 $65 292 0
TAS $17 $17 -$15 $63 280 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,528MW
18:45
Trough
3,439MW
12:05
Energy
298.6GWh
QLD
Peak
7,076MW
18:35
Trough
3,111MW
13:25
Energy
246.2GWh
SA
Peak
1,560MW
19:10
Trough
627MW
15:35
Energy
56.7GWh
VIC
Peak
5,732MW
18:50
Trough
2,732MW
12:45
Energy
208.3GWh
TAS
Peak
1,192MW
18:40
Trough
893MW
02:25
Energy
48.7GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,2850$1613 Sept, 16:00
LOWERREG$1,0430$613 Sept, 17:05
LOWER5MIN$1570$313 Sept, 16:00
LOWER60SEC$1340$113 Sept, 13:40
RAISE6SEC$640$013 Sept, 20:10
LOWER6SEC$580$113 Sept, 13:40
RAISE60SEC$490$013 Sept, 18:05
RAISE5MIN$210$013 Sept, 20:10
Total$4,810

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,4700$1613 Sept, 16:00
LOWERREG$5,5540$613 Sept, 17:05
LOWER60SEC$3800$113 Sept, 13:40
LOWER5MIN$2360$313 Sept, 16:00
RAISE6SEC$1410$013 Sept, 20:10
RAISE60SEC$1000$013 Sept, 18:05
LOWER6SEC$920$113 Sept, 13:40
RAISE5MIN$200$013 Sept, 20:10
Total$15,993

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,9290$1613 Sept, 16:00
LOWERREG$3,2100$613 Sept, 17:05
LOWER60SEC$2800$113 Sept, 13:40
RAISE6SEC$1250$013 Sept, 20:10
RAISE60SEC$1110$013 Sept, 18:05
LOWER5MIN$990$313 Sept, 16:00
LOWER6SEC$550$113 Sept, 13:40
RAISE5MIN$480$013 Sept, 20:10
Total$9,856

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,4580$1613 Sept, 16:00
LOWERREG$3,5610$613 Sept, 17:05
RAISE60SEC$1,3380$513 Sept, 21:05
RAISE6SEC$7090$513 Sept, 21:10
LOWER60SEC$2960$113 Sept, 13:40
LOWER5MIN$2220$313 Sept, 16:00
LOWER6SEC$1260$113 Sept, 13:40
RAISE5MIN$260$013 Sept, 20:10
Total$10,737

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$10,0970$513 Sept, 05:05
LOWERREG$9,1860$7513 Sept, 12:35
RAISE6SEC$5690$013 Sept, 04:05
RAISE60SEC$5660$013 Sept, 04:05
LOWER60SEC$800$113 Sept, 13:40
LOWER6SEC$520$113 Sept, 13:40
LOWER5MIN$480$213 Sept, 15:55
RAISE5MIN$40$013 Sept, 19:00
Total$20,602

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,249 MW at 19:00 as NSW spot hit $72/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,570 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $72/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 463 MW at 20:30 as VIC spot hit $61/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 117 MW at 22:00 as SA spot hit $69/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,959 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $34/MWh.

Discharged
6,036MWh
peak 1,249 MW · 19:00
Charged
7,792MWh
peak 1,393 MW
Net
-1,755MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,257MWh
peak 1,570 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,208MWh
peak 921 MW
Net
-951MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
85%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,388MWh
peak 463 MW · 20:30
Charged
4,513MWh
peak 927 MW
Net
-3,125MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
31%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
493MWh
peak 117 MW · 22:00
Charged
1,807MWh
peak 355 MW
Net
-1,314MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
27%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
13,174MWh
peak 2,959 MW · 18:30
Charged
20,320MWh
peak 3,191 MW
Net
-7,146MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
65%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$10023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
6,036MWh
-1,755
#2QLD
5,257MWh
-951
#3VIC
1,388MWh
-3,125
#4SA
493MWh
-1,314

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 52.3%
  • Coal52.3% · 94.3 GWh
  • Gas0.6% · 1.0 GWh
  • Hydro4.6% · 8.3 GWh
  • Wind5.4% · 9.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)13.5% · 24.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)20.3% · 36.5 GWh
  • Battery3.3% · 6.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 52.1%
  • Coal52.1% · 95.2 GWh
  • Gas1.4% · 2.5 GWh
  • Hydro1.4% · 2.6 GWh
  • Wind13.0% · 23.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.7% · 19.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)18.5% · 33.8 GWh
  • Battery2.9% · 5.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 41.8%
  • Coal41.8% · 63.6 GWh
  • Hydro0.6% · 0.9 GWh
  • Wind41.0% · 62.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)3.8% · 5.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.0% · 18.3 GWh
  • Battery0.9% · 1.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 76.7%
  • Gas6.3% · 2.6 GWh
  • Wind76.7% · 31.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.1% · 0.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)14.7% · 6.1 GWh
  • Battery1.2% · 0.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 56.2%
  • Gas14.4% · 3.1 GWh
  • Hydro56.2% · 12.1 GWh
  • Wind25.1% · 5.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)4.4% · 0.9 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.4 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.1 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:007.3 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.5 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.4 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
39.5%
VIC · Daily renewable share
65.5%
QLD · Daily renewable share
50.9%
SA · Daily renewable share
104.1%
TAS · Daily renewable share
66.1%
Peak instantaneous
77.0%
at 11:30
Daily NEM-wide share
52.3%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    39.5%
  • VIC
    65.5%
  • QLD
    50.9%
  • SA
    104.1%
  • TAS
    66.1%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +22.7 GWh 2 —
NSW1-QLD1 −47.6 GWh 0 —
VIC1-NSW1 +34.7 GWh 0 —
V-SA +3.5 GWh 17 —
T-V-MNSP1 −7.9 GWh 1 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
246.4k tCO₂
▼ 12.0% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 82.0k tCO₂ 0.445 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 84.9k tCO₂ 0.457 tCO₂/MWh
SA 1.4k tCO₂ 0.033 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 76.3k tCO₂ 0.506 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.9k tCO₂ 0.088 tCO₂/MWh