NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Sunday 19 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-19

Market Snapshot

Queensland records seventy-four negative price intervals amid moderate NEM demand

Regional pricing remained relatively compressed across the NEM, with South Australia peaking at $198.00/MWh and Victoria reaching a maximum of $99.50/MWh. Queensland was the only region to experience negative pricing, with 74 intervals contributing to its $45.90/MWh average.

Evening demand peaks were synchronised across the eastern seaboard, with New South Wales reaching 10,092 MW and Queensland hitting 7,427 MW at 18:00. South Australia and Victoria peaked slightly later between 18:40 and 19:05.

Coal provided 55.1% of the total generation mix, while renewables averaged a 41.3% share across the 24-hour period. Wind contributed 15.4% of the total energy, supported by a combined solar contribution of 16.5% from utility and rooftop sources.

Storage activity saw batteries discharge 12,909 MWh, though the fleet remained a net consumer with -5,255 MWh net flow. FCAS costs were led by the Raise Regulation service in New South Wales, which totalled $26,001.

Today · Predispatch forecasts indicate a price peak of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with New South Wales expected to peak at $98.25/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $55.80/MWh breaks a four-day run of prices exceeding $80.00/MWh, sitting significantly below the 7-day average of $65.44/MWh. This price softening occurred despite a 14.4% increase in emissions, as high negative price frequency in Queensland diverged from the positive price trends in all other regions.

NSW $61VIC $41QLD $46SA $64TAS $44
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $28 $55 $83 $110 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 $0 $38 $75 $113 $150 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $61 $63 $2 $97 0 0
QLD $46 $50 -$7 $85 74 0
SA $64 $69 $9 $198 0 0
VIC $41 $44 $1 $99 0 0
TAS $44 $45 $2 $90 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,092MW
18:00
Trough
6,537MW
13:20
Energy
379.3GWh
QLD
Peak
7,427MW
18:00
Trough
4,061MW
12:40
Energy
273.9GWh
SA
Peak
1,921MW
19:05
Trough
476MW
13:30
Energy
65.4GWh
VIC
Peak
7,833MW
18:40
Trough
4,091MW
14:10
Energy
275.9GWh
TAS
Peak
1,400MW
18:00
Trough
1,026MW
03:40
Energy
56.5GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,1280$1219 July, 15:55
LOWERREG$3770$319 July, 14:40
LOWER60SEC$2180$119 July, 14:10
RAISE6SEC$1530$019 July, 17:40
RAISE60SEC$1110$019 July, 17:40
LOWER5MIN$700$019 July, 15:40
LOWER6SEC$540$019 July, 14:10
RAISE5MIN$390$019 July, 17:20
Total$5,149

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,1500$1219 July, 15:55
LOWERREG$1,2380$319 July, 14:40
LOWER60SEC$4040$119 July, 14:10
RAISE6SEC$2650$019 July, 17:40
RAISE60SEC$1620$019 July, 17:40
LOWER5MIN$770$019 July, 15:40
LOWER6SEC$760$019 July, 14:10
RAISE5MIN$280$019 July, 17:20
Total$5,400

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,8740$1219 July, 15:55
LOWERREG$1,5260$319 July, 14:40
LOWER60SEC$5070$119 July, 14:10
RAISE6SEC$1990$019 July, 17:40
RAISE60SEC$1750$019 July, 17:40
LOWER5MIN$1280$019 July, 15:40
LOWER6SEC$670$019 July, 14:10
RAISE5MIN$520$019 July, 17:20
Total$10,527

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$2,9120$1219 July, 15:55
LOWERREG$2,5360$319 July, 14:40
LOWER60SEC$3540$119 July, 14:10
RAISE6SEC$2450$019 July, 17:40
RAISE60SEC$1790$019 July, 17:40
LOWER6SEC$1050$019 July, 14:10
LOWER5MIN$940$019 July, 15:40
RAISE5MIN$540$019 July, 17:20
Total$6,479

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,9370$519 July, 12:20
LOWERREG$2,1990$219 July, 10:00
RAISE6SEC$3330$019 July, 08:35
RAISE60SEC$3270$019 July, 07:50
LOWER6SEC$1000$319 July, 10:25
LOWER60SEC$350$019 July, 08:40
RAISE5MIN$150$019 July, 08:35
LOWER5MIN$30$019 July, 08:40
Total$10,949

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,312 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $86/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,201 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $80/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 762 MW at 18:00 as VIC spot hit $85/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 443 MW at 19:00 as SA spot hit $130/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,567 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $78/MWh.

Discharged
4,273MWh
peak 1,312 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,908MWh
peak 1,158 MW
Net
-2,635MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
62%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,319MWh
peak 1,201 MW · 18:00
Charged
5,646MWh
peak 1,330 MW
Net
-1,327MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
76%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,034MWh
peak 762 MW · 18:00
Charged
3,897MWh
peak 671 MW
Net
-863MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
78%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,283MWh
peak 443 MW · 19:00
Charged
1,713MWh
peak 382 MW
Net
-430MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
75%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
12,909MWh
peak 3,567 MW · 18:30
Charged
18,164MWh
peak 2,961 MW
Net
-5,255MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
71%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$15023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
4,319MWh
-1,327
#2NSW
4,273MWh
-2,635
#3VIC
3,034MWh
-863
#4SA
1,283MWh
-430

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 64.6%
  • Coal64.6% · 122.0 GWh
  • Gas0.6% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro2.2% · 4.2 GWh
  • Wind12.5% · 23.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.5% · 16.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)9.4% · 17.7 GWh
  • Battery2.3% · 4.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 58.0%
  • Coal58.0% · 112.9 GWh
  • Gas2.2% · 4.3 GWh
  • Hydro2.6% · 5.1 GWh
  • Wind13.2% · 25.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.5% · 20.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.3% · 21.9 GWh
  • Battery2.2% · 4.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 64.5%
  • Coal64.5% · 113.8 GWh
  • Gas0.3% · 0.5 GWh
  • Hydro6.6% · 11.7 GWh
  • Wind16.5% · 29.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)3.1% · 5.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)7.3% · 12.8 GWh
  • Battery1.7% · 3.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 46.8%
  • Gas21.5% · 7.4 GWh
  • Wind46.8% · 16.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)7.1% · 2.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)20.8% · 7.1 GWh
  • Battery3.8% · 1.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 81.1%
  • Gas9.5% · 3.6 GWh
  • Hydro81.1% · 31.2 GWh
  • Wind7.7% · 3.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)1.7% · 0.7 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.6 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.5 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.7 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.8 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.9 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
30.3%
VIC · Daily renewable share
38.6%
QLD · Daily renewable share
45.5%
SA · Daily renewable share
63.7%
TAS · Daily renewable share
109.6%
Peak instantaneous
64.6%
at 12:25
Daily NEM-wide share
41.3%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    30.3%
  • VIC
    38.6%
  • QLD
    45.5%
  • SA
    63.7%
  • TAS
    109.6%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +40.3 GWh 0
NSW1-QLD1 −64.2 GWh 0
VIC1-NSW1 +36.0 GWh 0
V-SA −18.4 GWh 6
T-V-MNSP1 +13.2 GWh 0

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
348.7k tCO₂
▲ 14.4% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 106.6k tCO₂ 0.560 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 100.8k tCO₂ 0.513 tCO₂/MWh
SA 3.3k tCO₂ 0.096 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 135.8k tCO₂ 0.770 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 2.2k tCO₂ 0.058 tCO₂/MWh