NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Thursday 9 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-09

Market Snapshot

South Australia and Victoria lead prices amid high thermal generation share

Regional average prices ranged from 88.0 dollars per MWh in Queensland to 144.9 dollars per MWh in South Australia. Victoria saw the highest volatility with a maximum price of 273.6 dollars per MWh during the evening peak period.

Total demand was highest in New South Wales at 425.8 GWh followed by Victoria at 341.5 GWh. Most regions reached their peak demand between 18:00 and 19:35, while Tasmania peaked earlier at 08:00 with 1,576 MW.

Thermal generation accounted for 64.7 percent of the mix as wind and utility solar each contributed 6.7 percent. Batteries discharged 16,348 MWh to the grid, maintaining a net consumption position of 5,950 MWh for the trading day.

FCAS costs were concentrated in the Raise Regulation service which totalled 76,236 dollars with peak prices occurring in Tasmania. Total emissions reached 412,774 tonnes of CO2, representing a 34.2 percent increase compared to the same day last week.

Today · Queensland is forecast to reach a peak price of 319.04 dollars per MWh at 19:30 this evening.

Why it matters · The daily average of 122.7 dollars per MWh sits 34 percent above the weekly average, extending a four-day upward price trend. This elevated pricing coincides with a low 33.7 percent renewable share and a significant 34.2 percent week-on-week increase in total emissions.

NSW $110VIC $143QLD $88SA $145TAS $130
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $48 $95 $143 $190 $0 $65 $130 $195 $260 $0 $38 $75 $113 $150 $0 $58 $115 $173 $230 $0 $60 $120 $180 $240 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $110 $113 $52 $186 0 0
QLD $88 $92 $26 $155 0 0
SA $145 $148 $58 $260 0 0
VIC $143 $148 $60 $274 0 0
TAS $130 $133 $50 $246 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,941MW
18:55
Trough
7,367MW
04:05
Energy
425.8GWh
QLD
Peak
7,786MW
18:00
Trough
4,395MW
11:05
Energy
294.7GWh
SA
Peak
2,051MW
19:35
Trough
1,034MW
14:35
Energy
75.2GWh
VIC
Peak
8,854MW
18:20
Trough
5,553MW
03:55
Energy
341.5GWh
TAS
Peak
1,576MW
08:00
Trough
1,179MW
01:35
Energy
64.1GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,5090$209 July, 22:00
LOWERREG$9070$49 July, 16:45
RAISE6SEC$2330$09 July, 07:45
RAISE60SEC$1890$09 July, 17:45
LOWER60SEC$1610$09 July, 13:35
LOWER6SEC$1190$09 July, 13:40
RAISE5MIN$860$09 July, 17:50
LOWER5MIN$690$09 July, 15:50
Total$7,274

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,0030$209 July, 22:00
LOWERREG$2,5410$49 July, 16:45
RAISE6SEC$4230$09 July, 07:45
LOWER60SEC$3980$09 July, 13:35
LOWER6SEC$3090$09 July, 13:40
RAISE60SEC$2700$09 July, 07:45
LOWER5MIN$1080$09 July, 15:50
RAISE5MIN$750$09 July, 07:45
Total$11,128

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,0510$209 July, 22:00
LOWERREG$1,6110$49 July, 16:45
RAISE6SEC$4530$09 July, 07:45
RAISE60SEC$3720$09 July, 17:45
LOWER60SEC$2080$09 July, 13:35
LOWER6SEC$1850$09 July, 13:40
RAISE5MIN$1560$09 July, 17:50
LOWER5MIN$360$09 July, 15:50
Total$9,071

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,0590$209 July, 22:00
LOWERREG$3,1470$49 July, 07:15
RAISE6SEC$1,5700$09 July, 04:35
RAISE60SEC$1,3790$09 July, 05:05
LOWER60SEC$8650$19 July, 09:00
RAISE5MIN$8430$09 July, 11:05
LOWER6SEC$8060$09 July, 06:55
LOWER5MIN$2320$09 July, 08:30
Total$14,901

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$51,6140$1479 July, 07:25
LOWERREG$14,2640$509 July, 05:05
RAISE6SEC$2,7500$729 July, 15:45
LOWER6SEC$3520$39 July, 15:35
RAISE60SEC$2150$19 July, 12:45
LOWER60SEC$1940$39 July, 15:30
RAISE5MIN$170$09 July, 12:55
LOWER5MIN$120$09 July, 14:05
Total$69,419

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,253 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $174/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,289 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $138/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 822 MW at 19:00 as VIC spot hit $158/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 312 MW at 08:30 as SA spot hit $212/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,288 MW at 18:00 as TAS spot hit $171/MWh.

Discharged
4,607MWh
peak 1,253 MW · 18:00
Charged
7,864MWh
peak 1,008 MW
Net
-3,257MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
59%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,602MWh
peak 1,289 MW · 18:00
Charged
7,064MWh
peak 1,438 MW
Net
-1,462MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
79%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,366MWh
peak 822 MW · 19:00
Charged
5,082MWh
peak 878 MW
Net
-716MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
86%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,772MWh
peak 312 MW · 08:30
Charged
2,288MWh
peak 283 MW
Net
-516MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
16,348MWh
peak 3,288 MW · 18:00
Charged
22,297MWh
peak 2,427 MW
Net
-5,950MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
73%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW$0$100$200$30023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
5,602MWh
-1,462
#2NSW
4,607MWh
-3,257
#3VIC
4,366MWh
-716
#4SA
1,772MWh
-516

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 67.6%
  • Coal67.6% · 153.6 GWh
  • Gas1.9% · 4.4 GWh
  • Hydro5.5% · 12.6 GWh
  • Wind5.5% · 12.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)9.6% · 21.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)7.8% · 17.6 GWh
  • Battery2.0% · 4.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 61.4%
  • Coal61.4% · 129.7 GWh
  • Gas4.1% · 8.7 GWh
  • Hydro2.9% · 6.2 GWh
  • Wind9.8% · 20.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.3% · 17.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.8% · 22.8 GWh
  • Battery2.7% · 5.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 64.6%
  • Coal64.6% · 115.4 GWh
  • Gas9.5% · 16.9 GWh
  • Hydro11.3% · 20.1 GWh
  • Wind2.2% · 3.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)3.4% · 6.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)6.5% · 11.7 GWh
  • Battery2.4% · 4.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 58.8%
  • Gas58.8% · 25.8 GWh
  • Wind19.9% · 8.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.1% · 1.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)13.1% · 5.7 GWh
  • Battery4.0% · 1.8 GWh
TOP FUEL 94.7%
  • Gas1.3% · 0.5 GWh
  • Hydro94.7% · 40.1 GWh
  • Wind2.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)1.5% · 0.7 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.2 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.4 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.5 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.5 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.0 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
26.9%
VIC · Daily renewable share
24.2%
QLD · Daily renewable share
40.0%
SA · Daily renewable share
38.9%
TAS · Daily renewable share
120.2%
Peak instantaneous
56.7%
at 12:45
Daily NEM-wide share
33.7%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    26.9%
  • VIC
    24.2%
  • QLD
    40.0%
  • SA
    38.9%
  • TAS
    120.2%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +50.6 GWh 0 —
NSW1-QLD1 −32.0 GWh 4 —
VIC1-NSW1 −20.5 GWh 8 —
V-SA −7.7 GWh 10 —
T-V-MNSP1 +15.2 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
412.8k tCO₂
▲ 34.2% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 136.3k tCO₂ 0.597 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 116.1k tCO₂ 0.542 tCO₂/MWh
SA 12.5k tCO₂ 0.281 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 147.5k tCO₂ 0.821 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 355 tCO₂ 0.009 tCO₂/MWh